Germany: The brazen proclamation of skills shortage!

Neither today nor in 20 years there is a real shortage of skilled workers in Germany. The public scaremongering turns out to be more brazen fraud!

 

"In 20 years, we lack 11 million professionals!"
It's madness! Today because we lack at least 10 million insurance contributions and employers' associations call seriously the shortage of skilled workers from.
In their foolhardy propaganda this lobby is also strongly supported by politicians and the media. The alleged shortage of skilled personnel fits all opinion leaders so wonderfully into the concept, because it legitimizes the immigration and demanded that the EU free movement. The honest analysis today looks like this:

 

Shortage of skilled workers in Germany?
50 years ago, perhaps - but today ???

2013
3.000.000 official unemployed
5.000.000 early retirement, early retirement, retraining, trainees, etc.
3.000.000 unregistered job seekers without Hartz IV claim
5.000.000 job seekers who want to replace their low-paying mini job or their agency against a normal paying job.

16.000.000 fair-paying jobs are missing!

1963
300.000 official unemployed
100.000 early retirees, early retirement, retraining, trainees, etc.
100.000 unregistered job seekers without Hartz IV claim
0 job seekers who want to replace their low-paying mini job or their agency against a normal paying job.

0 fair-paying jobs are missing! Any healthy person seeking a job can choose among dozens of offers. It's mostly just about the height of about tariff benefits.

So pressure is, strictly speaking, about 16 million paid fair, social insurance jobs! If we had, the financing of our social systems would be absolutely no problem, then you would not even have to cut the pensions of 70 to 45 percent of the last gross salary.

 

It usually lacks only on the payment!
On closer examination, the tirelessly propagated in the media skills shortage turned out to be pure propaganda chatter. A shortage of skilled workers is apart from a few exceptions complained only in industries whose wage rates are too low or where individual companies offer poor working conditions.

Unfortunately, the unchecked influx from abroad prevented a performance-based wage adjustment in many professions. For millions of economic refugees are often glad at all to get a job in Germany and work for little money and well below tariff.

By this undermining the natural dynamics of the market economy is severely disturbed. In an intact internal market would real shortage of skilled workers in a sector automatically lead to a rise in wages. In Germany, however, the opposite is the case. Since 1980 fall across the board, inflation-adjusted net wages and pensions.

Even the supposed shortage of engineers and mathematicians ultimately results from the elimination of the market economy. Why have to prove themselves as an engineer a day when you can earn more as a secondary teacher with less pressure to perform?
Conclusion: Due to the accessibility of immigrants today, many professions are paid does no longer meet!

A hopefully thought-provoking note in the margin: In Germany there are about 300,000 prostitutes, 80 percent of them come from abroad. so does the shortage of skilled workers from which ever is the speech?

 

Frequent retraining because the learned profession brings too little!
The caused by poor earning potential frustration often leads to retrain. There is only so many times learned a completely new profession because the salaries in the teaching profession are simply too low. In economic terms this career change is an expensive pleasure.
Because the effective working life of the population is thereby reduced considerably. Not only those affected lose retraining over 10 percent of their working lives - the drawn-over-year secondary education eventually also claims a large contingent of good trainers.

If all occupations paid fairly (by not consuming the imported wage dumping), the number of retraining would decline considerably. Likewise, the number of emigration would of course significantly reduce.

 

Many German doctors are attracted because of leaner income abroad (Scandinavia, Switzerland, USA, etc.). To compensate for these departures we recruit doctors from eastern Europe. There, the doctors are missing.

Would German doctors better paid, the attractiveness of the profession would increase (there were more medical students) and of course fewer doctors would go abroad.

 

"Without immigration our care system would collapse!"
Also this kind horror stories are baseless. Most geriatric nurse in Germany earn 20% below plan. If you were to stop immigration from abroad in these professions, the care system would collapse unlike claims by no means.
In such a case, the wages would gradually adapted to the circumstances (the market). Under tariff hardly anyone would want to work in Germany in this area more and wage rates would attract soon to a level that increases the attractiveness of this arduous profession significantly.

 

Misleading reports of success!
According to statistics, since the employment rate of over 58 year olds will rise again. However, in the euphemistic messages and graphics, unfortunately, is only nebulous of "jobs" speech. It would be interesting to know what proportion of the real, insurance full-time jobs would be.
The fact is that many deported in the early retirement professionals are forced by the drastic reduction in pension benefits for a second job to supplement their meager incomes slightly. It is almost cynical, derive an employment income from the damage caused by the pension cuts emergencies.

 

Only 27 of the 42 million working conditions in Germany are social insurance.
These figures should really shake up everyone! Of course, every worker would have preferred a social insurance work, even with regard to the prospective pension entitlements.

The millions of insurance free mini-jobs show the true face of our supposed "employment miracle". Why our elected representatives accept at all in a "skills shortage" exemption from compulsory insurance? If these special perks canceled, the insurance premiums could fall across the board.

 

 

Those who claim that Germany needed because of the alleged shortage of skilled workers more immigrants, is in my eyes an ignoramus or pathetic liar!

Despite creative accounting to have official unemployment in Germany increased tenfold in the last five decades!

 

Skills shortages, despite mass unemployment?
This is precisely the problem of our welfare state: Many activities are so poorly paid in Germany that taking up work is not worthwhile. Hartz IV families with children are often better without job recording as corresponding with low or average income households.
Similarly, quite a few Stressed (the number of mentally ill in recent years has skyrocketed) can no longer take refuge in a carefree early disability or are happy to already enjoy 58 an early retirement pension (or the companies are glad the older, to get rid of so powerful workers elegantly).

Anyone objecting now, such a thing would not exist in Germany yet, work refusers it go here thanks Hartz IV to the collar, misunderstands the situation. Who does not want to work in Germany and reasonably intelligent (and has no usable assets), which is difficult to be dealt with by legal means.
How can you force someone in our social state to deliver decent work? Also power Cutback threats do little if any in the imposed job crap builds ( "I give my best, but I just can not do") or permanently sick plays.

Conclusion: attractive wages and / or significantly lower social benefits, conditions would change rapidly. Then there would be even in the nursing profession and in catering an oversupply of skilled labor and no one would speak of a necessary immigration .

The unlimited freedom in finding a job in the EU kontakariert the natural driving forces of the free market economy. From these difficulties, many tried to unlimited immigration companies benefit (at the expense of the general public).

 

Temporary bottlenecks
For 5 years already generated by an artificially produced cheap flood of money in the construction industry a temporary illusory boom. Instead of a previously conventional mortgage interest rate of 8% you get today for 2% construction funds.
Given these absurd conditions will naturally built and never been renovated. When it comes to this exceptional situation in any craft area to a "skills shortage", you just have to live with it. It does not make sense now train over charge bricklayers or roofers who were unemployed then after the (artificially produced) Boom all.

It also makes no sense to cover this shortfall with immigrants. Because that would eventually no longer even needed to expiry of the boom. You can not just send back home those people then. They may have to live on welfare for life.

 

"In the year 2034 lacks 11 million skilled workers!"
Have always been made with absurd predictions policy. Already for the year 2013, a million-fold shortage of skilled workers was predicted in the 1990s. But it does arrive quite different. The shortfall has not occurred, the then forecast has proven to be idiotic. Instead of a skills shortage we are experiencing the era of mass unemployment, with the majority of the unemployed is eliminated by accounting tricks from the official statistics.

Today, of course, no one talks more of the misleading predictions of the 1990s. And in 20 years the forecasts of today ( "11 million missing professionals") are no longer questioned. The false prophets do not need to fear being held accountable for their momentous miscalculations ever accountable.

 

The flaw in the required bills!
Mostly calculate dubious experts on behalf of the economy the demand for skilled workers on the basis of age-related turnover: 20 million workers over the next 20 years in retirement - but due to weak cohorts move only 9 million young professionals after. 20 million minus 9 million - which then results in a shortfall of 11 million workers.
But this miscalculation is of course absurd. For many reasons, such. B .:

 

1. A shrinking population also needs fewer workers!
When the strong cohorts gradually die, the population of the country decreases (is, if not canceled by a forced migration of the effect). Demographic trends also will normalize for this reason (the proportion of pensioners in the total population will noticeably decrease).
Would the German population decrease so in 20 years to ten million, one needs to its nutrition and care no more 40 million workers.

 

2. The growing productivity reduces the workload!
The brilliant progress in the technical development increase productivity. In the next 20 years is expected to increase by 70 percent. This means that it will be in 20 years, also used far fewer workers to meet today's standard of living. Even this aspect explains why the scare tactics the shortage of skilled workers is totally unfounded.

 

Basics:
Why a state needs more jobs than the country will bear?
All over the world we are fighting with the phenomena of mass unemployment, poverty and wage dumping. In this environment, German entrepreneurs now lament the acute shortage of skilled workers.
But what is in Germany so fundamentally different, why we need more workers than their own people will bear? Is our standard of living is so high that we could not achieve it by their own efforts? Hardly likely!

 

The true cause is more likely to be found in our export madness!
If Germany does not generated a huge trade and current account surplus year after year, our political actors feel apparently uncomfortable. Although we know perfectly well that our imbalance some EU countries brings in considerable difficulties. Why has to be produced in densely populated Germany, which is then consumed in countries with huge unemployment problems?

If you were in Germany three million official unemployed and five million hidden unemployed (deported to early retirement, training) and the army of millions of hidden reserves (people who are not registered as unemployed because they do not receive social benefits) enable all we could almost take over the nutrition and care of half of Europe. And completely unassisted (without immigration).

 

Immigration creates new demand for labor!
To this extent, immigration is at best a zero-sum game in terms of labor demand. Because migrants are indeed no care-free robot. Let them be as feed the local population and supplies (which workers claimed) as well.
In other words: if in Germany 20 million, 40 million or 80 million people -
in a healthy economy, it does not matter - there is no shortage of skilled labor, just as mass unemployment.

The intact national community always earned a living standard that it needs or can generate from their own forces.
Variable only the general weekly working time is (the higher the precipitates, the higher the standard of living).

 

"But we still have 600,000 vacancies!"
Really? And what are these jobs that can not be filled apparently?

In the summer season in 2015 alone there were on Sylt an unmet need of 800 temporary workers, mainly in the catering and hotel industry. And why can not be filled, these bodies, despite persistently high mass unemployment? It's simple: Because the merits are not adapted to the working conditions!
The reward does not even arrived in many cases to cover the cost of a small apartment on Sylt (the rents are there horrendous). So people need to back by train from the mainland and forth. This is very time consuming and of course also goes into the money. It is hardly worth (unless you halved the Hartz IV rates for families).

In the bakery trade, it seems, meanwhile, also to give a shortage of young people. Is us raved constantly about the media, refugees could well be retrained, especially in this area. A few years ago, many bakers found a job (because increasingly only baked imported blanks). It may be that the tide has now turned.
But because why do so few graduates still bakers are today? Is not due to the insufficient payment in the face more difficult working conditions? Get up at 3 am and then perform in hot bakeries chord work is really not for everyone. Since you prefer to work but in a car company on the assembly line (earned there twice), Pilot will (in quadruple content), teachers, educators, social workers or whatever.

Every person and every job has its price. Using the mass-immigration of this market economy principle is undermined.

The defendant "skills shortage" in the bakeries is instructive and exemplary in other ways. What work remains actually are because of the emergency situation? Has about our overproduction and affluent society already someone once can buy no more bread? The worst case scenario would be only if, instead of the usual twenty only five breads were close to closing time available.

 

We're running out the work ...
In this skills shortage debate nor fears to be omitted which target the opposite direction exactly. For 20 years is alleged to humanity go long to work out (always further automation, use of robots, etc.).
These scare tactics I do not support. Ultimately, it all comes down to only one interest balance of standard of living and leisure. If we content ourselves with the entitlement of 1970, we would all just work about 20 hours today.

 

Perversion of thought:
Why should people leave their homes and constantly run after work? Why investors do not go where the people are?
Migrations - as luck would have it capital?

 

Addendum:
The report published in June 2014 new National Education report confirms that the "skills shortage" largely homemade was. In many shortage occupations (metal, technology, power, health and care) it simply lack of training places - apprenticeship applicants there would be enough. The defendant by the economic shortage of young people is really only in the fields of nutrition and crafts, cuisine, hotels and restaurants.

My conclusion: It can so twist and turn as you like: For a reasonable charge there would be no shortage of skilled workers! Immigrants are needed only to undermine wage rates or underpaid professions do not have to be raised to the necessary level.
This view was also part of the ARD confirmed by a 45-minute television documentary on 21 7th, 2014.

 

How is a shortage of skilled workers?
A shortage of skilled labor is almost always the result of an outdated pay.
In choosing a career young people prefer understandably occupations that are particularly attractive. The dream job is to demand from a not too much stress, enjoy a high social status, offer pleasant working hours and good career opportunities and of course best remunerated.

In a time where everyone gifted man can attain a high school degree and study, the claims are naturally correspondingly high. Most trades for example require in-depth technical knowledge combined with technical skill. Who has this kind talents could so successfully complete some courses.

Now, when I hear from some bosses again, "but we pay well and yet we get no people," said this assessment is quite subjective. Because the wage rates in the shortage occupations would be raised with the market, there would also be there enough young talent.
The usual objection that higher wages could you can not afford that are simply not there, not true. For the higher wage rates eventually apply to all, even for the competitors. The competitors have to bite the bullet - or they will get no more people.

The higher costs being passed ultimately to the customer.
But now even does a healthy market economy. It is therefore not a client's heating boilers no longer leave his roof or his air-conditioning repair. The customer must accept the market price, or he will miss.
5 years ago it was finally ready to lie three times the amount for a flat screen TV. Summary: The customer accepts market prices, because he had no choice remains (most of the waiver).

Similarly, even the supposed shortage of skilled workers in the elderly can be explained. Why should someone push night shifts for relatively little money, ruining his back and annoying old people change diapers when in other professions (for example, as an educator) finds far better working conditions and better wages in times of Hartz IV?

No wonder, then, if it is difficult under these circumstances to find enough good nurse. By the immigration overdue wage adjustment is unfortunately prevented because foreigners are often more modest and far worse rewards are used to. If there were no immigrants, wage rates for geriatric nurse would be much higher (because of the unpleasant working conditions still above the level of the educators).

So it's nothing around it: If there really is a shortage of skilled personnel in any area, the remuneration is not true. The attractiveness of a profession is ultimately determined by the height of the content. It would be more than ignorant to believe that particularly arduous and unpleasant tasks in times of Hartz IV would not need to be rewarded accordingly.

To illustrate an example of the economic miracle
An acquaintance of mine (he had just finished learning) sought a position in 1967 as a printer. In a four-line display flow rate in a small trade publication he received 64 job offers.
The company outbid each other with special benefits: A payment of 20% over rate was almost standard, in addition often came to provide a convenient, proprietary new flat (back then there was an acute housing shortage), daily complimentary cafeteria food, the acquisition of removal expenses, possibly . the use of a company car, etc ..

At that time there was a real shortage of labor, which then led to severe over tariff benefits in many professions. The good employment and earning potential in the shortage occupations then automatically ensured a rise in the number of apprentices. In an intact single market drop everything regulates all by itself.

Targeted measures even full employment could pretend.
The unemployment rate is probably the most important indicator to prove the success of the government's work. As long as one is able to report declining numbers, the group-friendly propaganda slogans appear ( "Germany benefits from ... the EU, the euro, globalization, open borders, immigration") as credible.
Here can be achieved by targeted manipulation virtually any dream result: Should worsen the situation, one needs to increase only the ABM deals, unemployed commit to training (which helps in two ways - the unemployment in statistics and there are additional teachers, interpreters and instructor needed), reduce the retirement age, rather than 58-year-old already over 56-year-old from the unemployment statistics banish etc ..

Fewer unemployed, but more Hartz IV recipients
Also for April 2017 was for Flensburg (as generally in the federal territory) again celebrated a decline in unemployment. End of April there were in Flensburg Office area 4,533 unemployed ( three less than in the previous month).
But the number of regular benefit recipients rose in the same period by 669 to 11,069.
What a discrepancy! Instead of the unemployment figures, should if one thinks it reasonably honest, rather the number of regular benefit recipients will be announced every month. That would be much more meaningful.

40 % der über 50jährigen haben keinen Job!
In Deutschland haben nur 60 % der über 50jährigen einen Job (was immer sich darunter auch verbirgt). Wer erwerbslos und über 50 Jahre alt ist hat ohne Vitamin B kaum eine Chance, noch eine seriös bezahlte Arbeit zu erhaschen. Nicht einmal eine Halbtagsstelle oder einen Aushilfsjob! Ein echter Fachkräftemangel sieht anders aus!


Excuse me!
There is no equal opportunity - also with regard to the formation of opinions. While the capital (corporations, speculators, lobbyists, media, governments) can afford the best translators, I have to settle for financial reasons with a simple language program. I hope that the text is nevertheless reasonably understandable and that no mistakes have occurred. Thank you for your understanding.

Manfred Julius Müller, D-24939 Flensburg (Flensburg has about 90,000 inhabitants and is located on the German-Danish border).

 

Background and analysis:
In Germany wages have been falling since 1980. Why?
Germany: The brazen proclamation of skills shortage!
Globalization: the ignorance of the facts
The political and economic consequences of an brexit An analytical consideration from German view.
"We have to explain Europe better!"
When will the Dexit? (the withdrawal of Germany from the EU)
The capitalist Powers Act
Globalization: "One cannot produce that with us anymore!"
The fairy tale of the international division of labor
The international division of labor is counterproductive!
The fear of British Farmers before the Brexit!
The impact of globalization on developing countries
Brainwashing: "We want an open Europe!"
How much democracy can withstand the EU?
Should the EU become a political union, new problems arise!
Is there indeed a general market saturation?

 

Ist die Globalisierung Basis unseres Wohlstandes?
Und leben wir auf Kosten der anderen?

(Eingangsseite www.anti-globalisierung.de)

Impressum

© Manfred Julius Müller, Flensburg, Februar 2014


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Manfred Julius Müller has analyzed global economic processes for more than 30 years. He is the author of various books on the topics of globalization, capitalism and politics. Some texts by Manfred Julius Müller also found their way into textbooks or are used for teacher training.

The analyzes and texts by Manfred Julius Müller are non-partisan and independent!
They are not, as is often the case, sponsored by state institutions, global players, corporations, associations, political parties, trade unions, the EU or capital lobby!